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Things OK for 2012; watch out for 2013

Posted: February 1, 2012 - 9:39am

This year looks OK. Watch out for next year.

That's what the team at Northern Economics says as they peer into the crystal ball.

Jonathan King, senior economist at Northern Economics, an Anchorage-based consulting firm, presented the Alaska portion of the World Trade Center Alaska's annual economic outlook presentation Jan. 18, along with Wells Fargo Bank's Aryan Vasquez, senior economist and vice president for global emerging markets, who spoke to the global economy.

Greg Wolf, president of the World Trade Center Alaska, was much more upbeat, however, in his assessment of Alaska's export trade, mostly with Asia. Exports from Alaska passed $5 billion in the value of products sold overseas in 2011 for the first time, Wolfe said at a luncheon where the presentation was made.

King, of Northern Economics, touched first on the nation's economy, which is in a sluggish recovery from the sharp recession. Unemployment is still a major concern across the U.S. and a particular worry is around the long-term unemployed, he said.

Forty-five percent of the nation's jobless workers have been unemployed for a long time now, and typically at this point in a recovery, that number is 25 percent, King said.

Possible explanations for this include a mismatch of skills as employers start hiring, King said.

"Many of the unemployed don't have the skills employers need. Also, many of the skills may be obsolete as the economy continues a change," toward higher technologies and information services, he said.

As for businesses, they are still sitting on cash, King said, waiting to see which way the national and global economic winds blow. There is a major concern over inflation, for the long-term, pushed partly by high commodity prices including for oil.

Alaska, however, is still in a good situation, at least short-term.

"Twenty-nine U.S. states have budget shortfalls," but not Alaska, King said.

Thanks to high oil prices, the state will see another big surplus this year, and a $13 billion cash reserve is on hand in the state treasury to cushion against a downturn in revenues, which is expected next year. There's also the state's permanent fund with a market value just under $40 billion. The principal of the fund can't be spent, at least for now, in state operations, but the fund's annual income is available for appropriation.

For now, Alaskans feel upbeat about the state's economy, King said. A quarterly consumer confidence survey published by Northern Economics shows confidence increasing, with 20 percent of Alaskans polled believing things are getting better and 65 percent of the opinion that the economy is stable.

On the Alaska jobs front, the state's economy is performing better than expected. Northern Economics had projected a 1 percent job growth in 2011 but it actually turned out to be 1.6 percent, King said. Not a robust figure, but better than in other states.

The Gross State Product also grew faster than expected. Because it includes the value of oil as well as the sum of all other goods and services produced the rising price of oil influences the number. At an average oil price of $98 per barrel, which had been forecast earlier, Alaska's GSP was estimated at $48 billion. However, the actual price is closer to $108 per barrel, which will push the annual GSP to $52 billion, he said.

However, things look less certain for next year. "We're really concerned for 2013," King said.

"There will be declining federal funds, including a likely 30 percent reduction in federal funds for transportation," which includes highway construction. "Oil production is declining, and it's going to catch up with us," he said.

Wells Fargo Bank's Aryan Vasquez, in his remarks, expressed deep concern about the global economy and particularly the European debt crisis, which seems likely now to plunge the Euro-zone nations into recession. That will have ripple effects across the world, including in the U.S., as the economy continues a slow improvement. In Asia, where things are booming and basically propping up the global economy, problems in Europe could have a dampening effect.

If it happens, that will have ripple effects in the U.S. and in Alaska, where trade with Asian nations and even Europe is important, Vasquez said.

"If there's not recession in the EU now, there soon will be," Vasquez said. "There is an increasing concern for the regional banking sector if the sovereign debt crisis of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal isn't resolved soon."

What's possible is a freeze-up of liquidity for banks and businesses like that which threatened the U.S. in 2008 and 2009.

This is now affecting the outlook for all of the developed nations, including Europe, the U.S. and selected nations in Asia, like Japan.

"We shouldn't expect much in 2012, at best a very low-growth trajectory, much like Japan has seen," Vasquez said.

For emerging markets, particularly in Asia and South America, the outlook is rosier.

Eastern Europe and even Africa is doing better than some of the other Euro-zone counties.

"The outlook is more positive for Turkey and South Africa," as other examples, he said.

The debt crisis aside, structural factors propelling growth in the emerging markets are the demographics.

"Populations are rising in developing nations as compared with Europe, where populations are falling," Vasquez said.

In many developing nations real incomes are rising and a large middle class is emerging. There is an incredible manifestation of wealth, and there are investments being made in infrastructure and technology advances, and in many nations a rebalancing of policy away from having economies led by exports to economies depending in part on domestic spending, he said.

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Jerry
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Jerry 02/01/12 - 12:57 pm
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Good article. I agree that

Good article. I agree that Alaska is in a unique position & will be able to survive 2012's coming Global economic collapse.
Alaska will be better off, unlike the lower 48 with its masses of people that will struggle mightly to the point of total collapse.
My one concern is what currancy or payment will Alaska accept for our goods when the collapse comes, if we can sell or trade with other nations if we even have a market for our goods?

The thing about Alaska is that when the collapse comes, and it will this year i believe, Alaska will be totally cut off from any supplies from the lower 48 and must use what OUR GR8 state provides us all with in order to survive.
I would venture to say that Alaskans will & must become OUR OWN Nation very soon.

When this Global economic collapse happens in 2012, we as Alaskans, must join together for the maintaining of law & order, as well as protection for the good of the people from those that would kill & destroy with no regard for others but only self.
The lower 48 will become nothing but mass carnage, carnage from coast to coast, with a very low survival rate all spured on by this attitude of ME First.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to read the writting on the wall that a Global collapse is coming any day now, as well as WWIII, WWIII which i believe has already started in the Middle East & will spread World wide.

Hard times are coming so please prepare now while we can buy supplies of every kind in preperation for whats coming our way very soon, as in 2012 and beyond.

I'm not fearful at all, but, as a Watchman on the wall looking for coming troubles, i just wanting to inform people that trouble is coming very soon, so prepare for the near future, as well as eternity, if ya know what i mean about eternity.

spwright
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spwright 02/01/12 - 02:26 pm
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$13 Billion" 2/1/12

Wed. 2/1/12

Did I hear that correctly ? 13 BILLION DOLLARS in the Alaska Cash Reserve ?

Well What in the Hell are We Waiting For ? That's MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY to Build a Natural Gas PipeLine !
& that's without touching the Permanent Fund Money

All of this Ranting & Raving, Gloom & Doom
It's TIME FOR ACTION, IT'S TIME TO BUILD THE GAS PIPELINE.
No more Research or Committees or never ending Talks & Discussions. We have been Talking for over 40 Years !

BUILD THE PIPELINE It's That Simple.

Meanwhile Back at the Ranch: Alaskans in Fairbanks & The Bush are Paying over $1,200.00 per month for Heating Oil.

SPW in Sloooooowdotna

dustinwilsonz
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dustinwilsonz 02/01/12 - 11:17 pm
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degree

Unemployment numbers are comprised of those that are in the job market for the past 30 days. It does not include those that have not been in the job market in the last 30 days: people who have given up looking; those that have gone off unemployment because it has run out. One solution to unemployment is High Speed Universities check it out

akal
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akal 02/02/12 - 10:43 am
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edge

the world is on the edge of the financial abyss, and some think this is a recovery? we are in the start of a depression and the government numbers are rigged. if you want to know the real stats. go to Google and type shadowstats and you will get the real figures. live by the golden rule and we will all come though this , those that decide to take from the weak may fall first. store food for 6 months or more. don't trust main stream news.

Icallbs
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Icallbs 02/02/12 - 02:02 pm
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Conspiracies? lol really? in

Conspiracies? lol really? in alaska. I expected better.

and by the way those cash reserves are for when the state is in an EMERGENCY fiscal situation, not for development. I totally agree with building the pipeline, but maybe instead of paying out a PFD check every year, the stae should use the money for what it was originally intended for and develop the state (Gas Pipeline for example) but no, the spoiled and the greedy people cry out every time the PFD checks are even remotley looked at as state fund. All I ever hear is "it's our money, we deserve it" when it isnt. The PF was designed to keep alaska afloat in bad economic times. We get a dividend of that permenant fund in the hopes that to maintain that exttra yearly income we will take better care of the state, and choose wisely with how we develop it. Hopefull the people of this great state will decide it is time to stop collecting that money, and use our share of the PF to help the state.

spwright
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spwright 02/02/12 - 03:57 pm
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This IS a Emergency 2/2/12

Icallbs Thur pm 2/2/12

This IS A EMERGENCY ! IF You live in Fairbanks or In the Bush & PAYING $ 1,200.00 per Month for Heating Oil to warm your Home. THAT'S A EMERGENCY TO ME

So use the 13 Billion Dollar Cash Reserve to build the
NATURAL GAS PIPELINE IMMEDIATELY .

It's TIME for ACTION & No more Talking.

SPW in Sloooooowdotna "Airborne"

Icallbs
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Icallbs 02/02/12 - 04:18 pm
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You chose

You chose to live there. You have to understand the costs of living. COLA is not what the PF is designed for.

Jerry
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Jerry 02/02/12 - 09:06 pm
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So how much of that $13

So how much of that $13 billion will be available when the economic World wide crash hits & there is absolutely no electronic withdrawl's to anyone?
People will not even be able to get in the banks to get anything out of their safe deposit boxs, or get any cash or make any transactions on line, no revenue/currancy to any one.
Then what if you haven't prepared for such a thing?

When the crash comes and Alaska becomes OUR OWN Nation, then we can use the oil to heat homes, as there will be no market for it or any form of currancy to pay for it either.

Hard times are coming and i would say before Memorial Day, that is if i was a guesser, or maybe understood the 7 Feasts of God and his words & promises to Israel, and how it affects them, which in turn affects all the World for the last days.

As i have warned many times, buy supplies that are non-perishable and alot of them while Alaska still has shipments of them coming up here.

I asked the Clarion to run the 10-12 weeks to Disaster Preparedness & how to prepare for trouble for survival, they ran this last yr, it may have been from the Peninsula Borough, but it was GR8 & very informative for OUR situation here in Alaska.
As of yet they have refused to do so. I wonder why?

It needs to be run in its entirety and not in weekly segments as we are almost out of time to prepare, and with the Governments giving us a line & song about how GR8 everything is, and we know they are lying out their teeth its got to be very close.

Norseman
2967
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Norseman 02/06/12 - 07:59 am
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jerry

End of times by memorial day? 7 feasts of god? Watchman on the wall?

Have you been watching Games of Thrones on HBO?

spwright
1376
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spwright 02/06/12 - 09:26 am
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It's the End of the World as We Know It

Mon. 2/6/12
Well Don't Ya already KNOW that The World will End on Dec. 21st,2012 ? ?

They even have a T V Series about these Survivalist Nut Cases on Cable TV now.
Perhaps Our Friend Jerry should audition for a part ?
Then He could Rant & Rave & Someone may actually Listen to Him .

Or or just maybe the Nut Cases are Correct & all of the rest of Us are going to Die ?
Who Knows the Correct Answer to THAT One ?

SPW in Slooooooowdotna

Jerry
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Jerry 02/06/12 - 06:40 pm
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I sometimes have a hard time

A watchman is a lookout that sounds the alarm for others to take action.
Once the watchman sees coming troubles & sounds the alarm, it then becomes those that heard the alarms responcibility to decide how they will react & prepare for the coming troubles.
Its a military thing that is used to help fellow soldiers & common people to prepare by alerting others that they need to decide if they will fight against the coming troubles, or do nothing to protect fellow soldiers & citizines.

Once the watchman sounds the alarm it then becomes EACH individuals own right to do what they wish with the info given for any situation, either by preparing or doing nothing to prepare, even to the point of causing others not to prepare some times.

A true watchman while on duty never stops his watching, lookout for trouble, never
My son is in Afgan on his multiple deployment there & in Iraq, so how long do ya think he & his fellow soldiers would survive if they did not have watchman looking for trouble & preparing for them when the alarm is sounded.

As i said before it does not take a real smart person to read the SIGNS of the times & all the warning given every where which all point to the End of an Era of Time, signs that not only the Mayans, but, 89 other societies have pointed to for 2012.

Its not the End of Time or the End of Earth, its just the End of an age or era of time, and a new beginning after the purging, they all can't be wrong and when one adds the Torah & Bible in that mix, both also say the same things, it might be a good thing to take notice of them, and not be lulled asleep by Hollywood and others depicting it as fantacy.

All these ancient societies believe that ancient gods will return to rule & that they will cause massive distruction world wide with only a select few left alive afterwards.
Its kind of like setting a fire to distroy the forest on the moose range so a New Beginning or growth will happen.

Its up to each of us to prepare, or not prepare as we wish, but making fun of the person giving the warning has proven to be a very bad mistake as military & history shows.
We all are free to give opinions for now, not much longer though i feel as there are those that would have us all restricted by any means, even calling others nutjobs & such.

You've heard the alarm that trouble is coming soon, now its your responsibility to take action for your selves & prepare, thats why the 12 steps to disaster were printed in the Clarion in the fisrt place, and why i also am warning people to get ready, all to help people prepare for trouble that is coming.

Have a GR8 day, and be informed i will never stop sounding the alarm that trouble is coming soon world wide as we see the End of an Era, and the Beginning of a New Era!!

Norseman
2967
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Norseman 02/06/12 - 04:08 pm
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someone has been drinking the

someone has been drinking the koolaid.....

spwright
1376
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spwright 02/06/12 - 08:45 pm
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Jerry, Your Son 2/6/12

Jerry, Mon. 2/16/12

May YOUR SON COME HOME ALIVE & WELL & SOON,VERY SOON !
May GOD be with HIM & KEEP HIM SAFE !

May You soon Welcome Your SON HOME with Open Arms & a heartfelt Hug !

Just a low life Draftee, July 1969 Airborne All the Way SPW

Jerry
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Jerry 02/07/12 - 02:40 pm
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SPWrightThanks for that.My

SPWright
Thanks for that.
My son is also 15 yr Airborne, was an instructor in Dahlonega, GA.
Transfered to Watertown, NY. sent to Afgan & will be home to become an Instructor again in FL. Lord willing this next month.

Thank you for your service as well, even though many Americans don't appreciate you or anyone from the VNam war, that even includes OUR Govt. and i'm sorry for that & the way OUR men & women are treated after service in these many never ending conflicts, wars.

I was in school till 71, my lott # was 43, but they didn't take me as i was the last of the family name, and still in school.
My son signed up even though he is the last male now, and thus far God has blessed & kept him through many road side bombs & snipper fights with many fellow soldiers asking him how he & they keep surviving.
Prayers some times are answered, some times not, but make no mistake God is always in control and has an End Game Plan for everyone, especially those that believe in him no matter what.

All the signs point to WWIII any day now, a war that will spread world wide & even to Alaska i feel, we may soon be fighting on the Kenai to protect our friends, neighbors & others, even those that hate us for what we believe or stand for, i hope your ready to aid & assist, as i am.

We are all in a war, its actually a Spiritual war of Good or Evil, and its all for the souls of mankind, with every kind of action being used to destroy us all, us all, as in every human being.
The thing is that many don't want to fight or choose sides even though it affects them eternally.
There is only right or wrong, and we all must decide which way we will go & good research of the facts is all that will aid us along the way in OUR clouded world.

Thank You & God Bless

kksalm
232
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kksalm 02/08/12 - 08:50 am
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You never know what could be coming

Take the communities surrounding Fukushima in Japan for example. That nightmare of honorable people is still going on with no end in sight.
What about "The Carrington Event" of 1859? If the sun produced a similar flare today all our satellites would likely be disabled. The implications move way beyond not being able to access your ATM.
I may not agree with everything our neighbor Jerry is trying to tell us but I do get the message. There's no harm in being prepared. Our community and occasionally our newspaper is telling us it's a good thing.
Thanks Jerry for your role as watchman. I appreciate it.

Jerry
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Jerry 02/08/12 - 12:50 pm
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kksalmUB the welcome one,

kksalm
UB the welcome one, and thank you for preparing for any situation, because as Forrest Ghump would say "Stuff Happens."

I,m not the sharpest knife in the drawer, as i almost graduated from HS, but English & grammer kept me back.
I also realize that i tend to staw off on Rabbit trails due to wanting to inform people of the many coming troubles & the massive Coverup & Deception being used on all of us by those that seek to control all the world for a select few in their Utopia.

GR8 News this morning as i see that the KPB is conducting an EMER GEN CY exercise this coming Friday at the shelter, and they need 70 people to participate in this drill.
This is a GR8 thing & i would love to take part in it but prior planning ahead has me other places, thats what i get for planning ahead.

I hope that the KPB will also hear my crys for them or whom ever to rerun the 12 steps to emergency prepardness or disaster, a very good list of things to store & how to survive the coming troubles, what ever they may be.

As a member of the Kenai Peninsula's human population i beleive that we do need to prepare as it would not take much to isolate us from Alaskans across any of the bridges between here & Anchor town.

As i watch the Middle east & see the Russians becoming more of an ally to Syria, Iran and other muslim groups i can't help but look at what Isaiah 17; says about the last days & how Damascus, Syria will disappear over night from being a city, never to be inhabited again during a time of trouble for Jacob/Israel.

I truly believe that this will be what Really starts WWIII, as it will cause Russia, Iran & other muslims to attack Israel & be distroyed just as Ezekiel 38; + 39; say will happen when the Jews are regathered in THEIR LAND.

With America conducting Operation BOLD ALIGATOR in the Middle East with 20,000+ soldiers and 25+ Battle ships along with several other nations, it makes one wonder if the Bold Aligator is about to gobble up another Nation, or many other nations?

At any rate we all need to be preparing for coming troubles of many differant types, and a GR8 Big Thank You to the KPB for also thinking so.

Have a GR8 Day!!

AliceS
6
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AliceS 11/22/12 - 12:46 am
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The Euro-zone was patched together

The Euro-zone was patched together by a flawed system of financial integration from the beginning, but during good times, that didn't matter. During these times, when there is essentially spreading panic selling of the debt of Euro-zone countries leading to spiralling borrowing costs, calls for a fix can't be ignored. But is it possible to re-formulate the Euro-zone when it is increasingly dominated by a single stable economic force - Germany?

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