A pair of personal-use dipnet-caught sockeye chill out in a cooler on the Kenai Beach before being packed off for the day Tuesday, July 11, 2017 in Kenai, Alaska. (Photo by Elizabeth Earl/Peninsula Clarion, file)

A pair of personal-use dipnet-caught sockeye chill out in a cooler on the Kenai Beach before being packed off for the day Tuesday, July 11, 2017 in Kenai, Alaska. (Photo by Elizabeth Earl/Peninsula Clarion, file)

Forecast predicts another below-average sockeye year

Next year’s sockeye salmon forecast for Upper Cook Inlet looks only slightly rosier than this year’s forecast.

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game released its 2018 forecast for the sockeye salmon return to Upper Cook Inlet on Tuesday, predicting about 4.6 million total sockeye to return to all the stream systems in the area. About 2 million would go to meet escapement goals, about 1.9 million would go to the commercial fishermen and about 700,000 to other user groups, according to the forecast.

The prediction is about 1.3 million below the recent 20-year average of about 5.9 million fish returning to Upper Cook Inlet, but slightly higher than the 2017 forecast of 4 million sockeye returning to all systems. The actual 2017 return was slightly higher than the forecast, in part because the Kenai River’s late run of sockeye was larger than forecast. The 2018 forecast still leaves the commercial harvest lower than 20-year average as well.

“The forecast commercial harvest in 2018 is 0.9 million less than the 20-year average harvest,” the forecast states.

The Kenai River is forecast to see 2.5 million sockeye return, about 1.1 million fewer than the 20-year average of about 3.6 million. The Kasilof River is forecast at about 866,000 sockeye, the Susitna River at 329,000 and Fish Creek at 211,000 with all other unmonitored systems in Upper Cook Inlet accounting for the remaining 665,000 fish.

If the forecast proves true, it will be the third below-average harvest year in a row for Upper Cook Inlet’s commercial fishermen. Commercial fishermen brought in about 2.6 million sockeye during the 2015 season, substantially below the 20-year-average, and though the preseason forecast for 2016 was promising, the run did not live up to expectations and commercial fishermen had another poor year, bringing in about 3.3 million sockeye rather than the 5.3 million predicted.

The 2017 season was predicted to be below average and actually exceeded expectations, with a later and larger run than predicted. However, commercial fishermen ended their season with about 1.8 million sockeye, the smallest sockeye harvest in the last decade.

The forecast of 2.5 million places Kenai River late-run sockeye salmon management into the middle tier for management, changing some of the restrictions on commercial fishermen, including giving drift gillnet fishermen the option of one inlet-wide fishing period in July. The managers watch the run throughout the summer and update the forecast by about the third week of July and adjust management strategies accordingly.

Commercial fishermen in Upper Cook Inlet are forecast to harvest about 7,400 king salmon, 389,000 pink salmon, 177,000 chum and 203,000 coho in 2018, though those numbers are based on harvests in the last five years and not on enumeration data.

Reach Elizabeth Earl at elizabeth.earl@peninsulaclarion.com.

More in News

A towering Lutz spruce, center, in the Chugach National Forest is about to be hoisted by a crane Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2015, for transport to the West Lawn of Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., to be the 2015 U.S. Capitol Christmas Tree. (Photo courtesy of the U.S. Forest Service)
Tongass National Forest selected to provide 2024 U.S. Capitol Christmas Tree

Eight to 10 candidate trees will be evaluated, with winner taking “whistlestop tour” to D.C.

A slash pile containing non-organic construction debris is seen at the Snug Harbor Slash Disposal site on Sept. 22, 2020, in Cooper Landing, Alaska. (Photo courtesy Kenai Peninsula Borough Land Management)
Assembly OKs concrete lease in Cooper Landing

The vote came amid widespread community opposition to the agreement

Jake Dye/Peninsula Clarion
Children hunt for Easter eggs during the Easter Eggstravaganza at Nikiski Community Recreation Center on Saturday.
Easter eggs, bunnies arrive on the Kenai Peninsula

There are plenty of opportunities to grab a photo with the Easter bunny or seek out some eggs

Flier for Bear Awareness and Electric Fencing Workshops. (Provided by Defenders of Wildlife)
Local workshops to focus on managing bear attractants, electric fencing

The series will run Monday through Friday, April 1-5, in Hope, Seward, Kenai, Soldotna and Homer

A person walks up the steps of the Alaska Capitol, Jan. 16, 2023, in Juneau, Alaska. (AP Photo/Becky Bohrer, File)
Some KPBSD schools could benefit from internet bill passed by House

If House Bill 193 becomes law, an additional six KPBSD schools would be eligible for the state’s grant program

Jake Dye/Peninsula Clarion
A veterinarian with Greater Good Charities escorts dog Maggie into a free spay/neuter clinic at the Moose Pass Fire Station on Thursday.
Moose Pass rallies behind free spay and neuter clinic

The clinic was put on by Greater Good Charities Good Fix program

Signage marks the entrance to Nikiski Middle/High School on Monday, May 16, 2022, in Nikiski, Alaska. (Ashlyn O’Hara/Peninsula Clarion)
Nikiski student arrested after school shooting threats

The juvenile student faces charges of terroristic threatening

Armageddon waits to be shown at the Kenai Peninsula District 4-H Agriculture Expo on Friday, Aug. 4, 2023, at the Soldotna Regional Sports Complex in Soldotna, Alaska. (Jake Dye/Peninsula Clarion)
Bjorkman farm tax relief bill clears Senate

The bill is now up for consideration in the House

Most Read